APFO and Abundance: The Merriweather Post, May 2025 Edition

The Wonky World of APFO, Implementing an Abundance agenda in Columbia, and a Restaurant Round-up following the closures at the Mall.

The Wonderful Wonky World of APFO

Buckle up for a wonk-out on APFO ahead of Tuesday night’s public hearing.

The Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (APFO) is the key tool that Howard County uses to pace residential development with public infrastructure needs (schools, roads, etc.) by establishing standards and tests that dictate where and when new housing can be built.

Following the County’s adoption of the long-term General Plan HoCo By Design in October 2023- which guides the long-term land use, growth, and development decisions in the County - an APFO Review Committee (of which I am a member) has been established to evaluate the existing APFO standards, and provide recommendations on potential changes to these regulations in consideration of the goals laid out in the General Plan. After meeting 17 times over the past 9 months and hearing from various experts, our committee is now presenting recommendations for public feedback. A public hearing will occur on Tuesday, May 20, at 6 PM in the Banneker Room of the George Howard Building, and written feedback is also welcome by May 20 via email to apfo@howardcountymd.gov. After considering public input and addressing the remaining “parking lot” of motions we have yet to get to, the Committee will present a final report to the County Executive and the County Council in August for their consideration.

The following sections summarize my observations, rationale, and recommendations of the APFO review committee. These are my personal views as a Howard County resident and do not reflect the review committee. As I tend to do, the following paragraphs mix a summarization of facts and personal opinion. I encourage everybody to testify and provide their feedback to the APFO committee.

Some Things I Learned at APFO School

With that disclaimer out of the way, and before I describe and discuss the key APFO committee recommendations, I want to briefly share some of the takeaways I have learned over the past year serving on the committee.

1. The County and Schools have a robust process for projecting future school enrollment, taking into consideration housing turnover, student yield projections from future development, birthrates, and our County’s aging population, etc. The methodology has been proven to be accurate over the years.

2. Howard County is growing at a slower pace than it has at any point over the past 50 years. We have averaged ~ 1,000 residential building permits over the past 5 years, down from an average high that exceeded 3,000 annually.

3. Very little undeveloped land remains in Howard County. Accordingly, the majority of new development planned in Howard County per HoCo By Design will be brownfield redevelopment of existing sites into multifamily apartments.

4. Apartments yield fewer students than single-family homes (SFHs). Apartments still yield new students, particularly income-qualified affordable units, but the student yield per unit is significantly lower than the student yield from SFHs.

5. Before the pandemic, 96% of school-aged children attended HCPSS. Now, it's only 92%. In other words, the number of school-aged children either in private school or being home-schooled has doubled over the past 5 years.

6. At a system-wide level, our school system is not overcapacity. There are currently more seats than students at all three school levels in Howard County. Of course, some schools are overenrolled while others are underenrolled.

7. Resale of SFHs has a much greater impact on school enrollment than new multi-family development, and APFO (rightly) has no controls that limit housing sales. Resales of SFHs has bee down over the past 5 years (likely due to the pandemic, high interest rates, and a lack of housing options for residents looking to downsize but stay in County). As a result, student yields from home resales are down.

8. For the above reasons, school enrollment has been declining over the past several years, and projections anticipate that school enrollment will be flat over the next 10 years.

9. The school system uses the average resale rate over the past 5-year period to project future housing resales. I suspect the recent decline in resales is a deviation, not a trend, that could revert if economic conditions change. If I’m correct, HCPSS enrollment may rise again.

10. Developers of residential units have to pay a school surcharge fee that is currently equal to $8.15 per SF of new residential development. This is indexed for inflation and increases annually, and is a significant increase from the $1.32 per SF fee charged before 2020. This fee is reduced and/or eliminated for certain age-restricted, affordable, and development near transit stations.

11. In FY26, more than $100 million, the largest ever, from state and local budgets will be used for new school capacity projects and deferred maintenance on aging school buildings.

12. Over the next 10 years, HCPSS’s long-range plan calls for the investment of over $1 billion for new school capacity projects and deferred maintenance, modernizing our older school buildings. Funding this plan is dependent on available revenue from the county and state, but projected revenue is not anticipated to be sufficient to fund this need. More revenue is needed.

The Issue with the Existing APFO

Under the existing APFO regulations, the “schools test” is by far the most impactful. This test pauses any new residential development for up to 4 years if it is located in any area assigned to an overcapacity school. Not many developers have the time, money, or desire to sit on a potential project for 4 years, and as a result, the existing APFO regulations essentially shut off new development in significant portions of our County. Currently, 9 elementary school districts and 3 middle school districts are closed to new development because they fail the “schools test” based on the new May 2025 APFO chart.

This “wait period” is purported to allow the school system time to build new capacity in anticipation of the additional student yield from future development, but in actuality, it stops development and all the new tax revenue that comes with it. The school system doesn’t need time to build school capacity, they need money to pay for the backlog of capital expansions and deferred maintenance in their queue. What good is time if you don’t have the money to build?

Primary APFO Recommendation

A primary recommendation of the APFO review committee, supported by 12 of the 15 members, is to replace the existing APFO school test with a utilization premium payment (UPP) modeled after the system used in Montgomery County but tailored for the unique circumstances of Howard. The UPP recommendation, if implemented, would eliminate wait times and instead require developers of new residential units to pay a new mandatory fee when adding residential units in a school area that exceeds specified utilization adequacy thresholds (e.g., 10%, 110%, 115%). The UPP fee would be in addition to the school surcharge fee (see #10 above) that is already assessed to all new development. UPP would be calculated and scaled based on the utilization of assigned schools, so that the UPP fee is higher for development in areas where the schools are more significantly overcapacity, and it’s additive so if more than one assigned school level (e.g. ES, MS, HS) is above the set threshold, the UPP fee would equal the total for each school level. Together, the new UPP fee, along with the existing developer surcharge fee, property tax revenues, and recordation fees, will create new and enhance existing revenue streams to fund the HCPSS capital budget.

More detailed information and examples on how the APFO committee recommends that UPP be structured for Howard County are contained in the public hearing slide presentation that will be presented by DPZ staff during the 5/20 meeting. The slides are available now here, on the APFO Review Committee website.

APFO Conclusion

The existing APFO requirements prevent development on the grounds that there are not adequate public facilities in place it support it, but it does not provide any solutions on how to add new facilities. It simply delays growth. As a result, APFO cuts off a revenue source needed to achieve the very thing supporters of a strong APFO say they want: new school capacity. If APFO remained as is, I fear it would lead to stagnation and decline as our tax base shrinks and public infrastructure continues to deteriorate.

But I don’t support eliminating the “APFO schools” tests (and in fact, I voted against that motion). Instead, I think the UPP model would enable our County to grow our economy, add housing opportunities for current and future residents, and increase revenues to fund the public infrastructure needs of a growing county. It’s a win-win for both housing and schools.

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Village Centers, New Town Zoning, and Abundance

On April 24, 2025, the decade-long proceedings surrounding the redevelopment of the Hickory Ridge Village Center finally came to a close. The Appellate Court of Maryland issued its opinion upholding the Howard County Zoning Board’s decision to deny Kimco Realty’s petition to redevelop the Village Center with new housing and retail buildings.

I’m disappointed but not surprised by this outcome. I thought the redevelopment plan would have helped rejuvenate and reactivate the village center with fresh buildings, new community spaces, and better retailers, but alas, ‘twas not to be. Even Kimco itself seemed resigned to this outcome well before this decision was handed down, as they have already moved on to focus on leasing the vacant retail spaces in the center that would have been demolished and rebuilt if the plan were to have proceeded. So, at least there is that silver lining. If you haven’t checked out Celia’s Cuban Cuisine and Mojito Bar, I don’t know what you are waiting for. It’s really good!

I do want to encourage people to read the court’s opinion for themselves, particularly pages 4-9, which describe the New Town Zoning redevelopment procedures that a redevelopment like this must navigate. For a court opinion, it’s well written with minimal legalese, so it’s relatively easy to understand. The TL/DL version is that there are a multitude of steps, governmental departments, community bodies, meetings, hearings, approvals, decisions, reconsiderations involved, and the process can be tripped up at any given stage, so its little wonder that a group of residents opposed to the village center redevelopment were ultimately successful in stopping the proposal using these regulatory proceedings.

Long-time readers of my blog shouldn’t be surprised that I’m a big believer that the “abundance agenda”, as described in the New York Times bestselling book Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, is the best path forward for our country and the Democratic party. Hell, you could have picked that up from reading the paragraphs above! The book contends that a more prosperous, sustainable, and equitable future characterized by an abundant supply of cheap housing, transit, and clean energy could be achieved by shifting our mindset from a focus on how best to distribute limited resources to how to best increase the overall supply of those resources. A key component of the agenda is to reform regulations (like zoning laws, environmental regulations, and other bureaucratic processes) that impede building new infrastructure. It’s liberal areas in blue states like ours that are most likely to have prioritized lengthy and complex regulatory processes characterized by numerous layers of review and extensive community input over achieving tangible outcomes.

I couldn’t help but think how the current zoning process that dictates Columbia’s village center redevelopment is a prime example of the type of procedures that Klein and Thompson argue need to be reformed. Now that HoCo By Design has been adopted, Howard County will be undertaking a comprehensive rezoning process that includes consideration of changes to New Town Zoning in Columbia. Similar to the APFO Review Committee tasked with reviewing and providing recommendations to the Council and County Exec on APFO, so too has a New Town Task Force has been formed to review and provide their recommendations on changes to New Town Zoning. The County just issued a press release and a list of task force members on May 14. I recognize the unlikeliness that a group of community residents will voluntarily cede local control over development, particularly given the history of Columbia as a master planned community, but I do hope that the task force approaches their recommendations from the perspective of abundance, looking to find solutions that enable economic growth while still protecting what makes Columbia special.

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Restaurant Round-Up

To conclude this month’s post, let’s touch on some restaurant news.

The closure of Walrus, Chicken + Whiskey, and Bennie’s got a ton of press, especially after The Banner article in which restaurateur Desmond Reilley blamed crime at the Mall in Columbia on the closure. His justification got a ton of deserved pushback from commenters across social media, best summed in the rebuttal letter to the editor by 2026 District 2 County Council candidate Arinze Ifekauche. I agree with Ifekauche. As it stands now, given current economic conditions, I think there are only so many high-end restaurants that Downtown Columbia can sustain. That will change as more Downtown Columbia housing options come online.

With more competition, you have to be good to survive. If I’m going to spend $100+ for dinner and drinks for 2, I’m choosing The Food Market, Offshore, or Blackwall as my easy top 3 choices. I do think the mall is disadvantaged given parking woes and changing shopping preferences that bring fewer people to brick and mortar stores, but I do not think these restaurants failed because of crime. Plenty of other restaurants at the Mall seem to be doing fine. In my opinion, dining at the Lakefront or in the Merriweather District is just overall a more pleasant experience.

In other Downtown restaurant news, it’s been a while since a new restaurant in the Merriweather District has been revealed. And we finally have a new one - Nash & Smashed - serving fried chicken and smashburgers in Marlow next to Smashing Grapes. My first reaction is “You gotta you kidding me, Not another hot chicken place?!” in Columbia. Although I am at least glad to have another more reasonably priced fast casual place in the Merriweather District. And the reviews of the Baltimore, Silver Spring, DC, and Virginia outposts of the local chain are all favorable. Still, a Sweetgreen or similar salad place, coffee shop, pizzeria, or sports bar would be much preferred by me. There’s still a handful of available spaces left.

Here is an updated list of restaurant comings, goings, closings, and vacancies in and around Downtown Columbia. Let me know in the comments what I omitted. Bold Italics are used to denote updates since the March version of this list.

Opened in the last 6 months

• Celia’ Cuban Cuisine (Hickory Ridge Village Center), opened April 2025

• Eggspectation (The Merriweather District), opened March 2025

• Pupatella Neapolitan Pizza (Route 108), opened March 2025

• HipHop Fish and Chicken (Oakland Mills Village Center), opened January 2025

• Tous les Jours (Dobbin Corridor), opened December 2024

• Big Greek Cafe (Dobbin Corridor), opened November 2024

• Old Line Kitchen and Wine Bar (Dobbin Corridor), opened November 2024

• Naz's Halal Food (Columbia Mall area, in former Halal Guys space), January 2025

Closed in the Last 6 Months

• Walrus Oyster & Ale House

• Bennie’s Pizza

• Chicken & Whiskey (Mall in Columbia)

• Nally’s Fresh (Dobbin Corridor)

• Bark Social (Merriweather District)

• Halal Guys (Mall in Columbia)

Coming Soon

• Nash and Smashed, fried chicken and smashburgers (Merriweather District)

• Apple Core’s Bake Shoppe (Snowden Center, next to Bon Fresco)

• Gyusan Japanese BBQ (Merriweather District)

• Mighty Quinn’s BBQ (Merriweather District)

• Chadol Korean BBQ (Wilde Lake Village Center)

• Uber Bagels (Snowden River Parkway)

Key Vacancies in Downtown Columbia:

• Marlow C145 (4,700 SF) prime corner location across from Toastique

• Marlow C135 (1500 SF) between Smashing Grape and Allure Nails

• Marlow C130 (1500 SF) between Smashing Grape and Allure Nails - To be Nash & Smashed.

• Marlow C120 (2000 SF) between Smashing Grape and Kyo Matcha

• Juniper B135 (1400 sqft) was supposed to be Jrip Coffee.

• 6100 Merriweather (7000 SF) Ground floor under Eggspectation

• 5801 Meriweather Drive: formerly Bark Social

• Two Merriweather: 2 space (4800 SF) formerly F45

• The Metropolitan (2,120 SF) formerly Po Boy Jim

• The Metropolitan (3,800 SF) formerly Corner Bakery - To be Charles Schwab. Lame.

• Mall in Columbia (~3,000 SF), formerly Chicken & Whiskey

• Mall in Columbia (~1,500 SF), formerly Bennie’s

• Mall in Columbia (~5,000 SF), formerly Walrus

• Lakefront Exhibit Center (7000 SF), formerly the 3rd

• Note this vacancy list is just Downtown Columbia, as I’m not including vacancies in village centers and other retail centers throughout the rest of Columbia.

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Until next month! Let me know if there are any topics you are all interested in. I’m tentatively planning to touch on the upcoming 2026 local elections for Council and County Exec, as candidate announcements are coming into full swing. In the meantime, if you haven’t already, subscribe to the Substack so you can get the future editions in your inbox as soon as they’re published. It’s free!