Hello Readers.
For a multitude of reasons, this blog has been on hiatus. It’s been nearly half a year since my last post in June. I appreciate all who have reached out to see what’s up, and rest assured, all is well. However, after six years of blogging, I admit that I am uncertain about what the future holds for The Merriweather Post. At this point, I do not plan attempting to restart monthly posts. But, I’m not going to say the blog is over either. I suspect that there will be some irresistible local story that entices me back to my keyboard to share my thoughts. Nonetheless, rather than continuing to leave everybody hanging, I wanted to write and share a finale-style article reflecting on the history of this blog, why I write, and importantly, share my high-level perspective on local politics and the future of Howard County that guides most of the perspectives I share here. So, this is not goodbye, well, probably not anyway - more like, see ya later. Regardless of what the future holds, thank you for reading, and I hope that my writing has helped provide optimism and excitement about the future of our County.
Some Reflections
I first started blogging in late 2019, and I did so because there were few blogs, let alone news outlets, providing the information I wanted to learn about - specifically, retail and development news in and around Columbia - and this was at a time when so much change in Downtown Columbia was just beginning to occur. So, as somebody thirsty to learn about all the details on what was being built, and without any detailed news coverage to my liking, I started researching the topics that interested me and sharing what I learned - predominantly, tenant announcements, construction updates, and future plans for the Merriweather District and Downtown Columbia. The blog quickly gained a reputation for finding and breaking news, and I had several early successes as being first to report on Clyde’s closure in June 2020 and the Symphony of Lights lawsuit that nearly shut down the covid-safe holiday tradition at the height of the pandemic - to date, my top two most-read stories. With the pandemic onset and time on my hand, I embraced this hobby of mine, and was prolific during the social distancing phase of Covid writing and posting upwards of 10 news and analysis posts per month through 2023, expanding coverage into local politics, developmental proposals, the Columbia Association and its Board of Directors (with an assist from former guest-blogger and current C.A. Board Director Michael Golibersuch) - and gaining a healthy following of readers/subscribers.
As news outlets (most notably The Baltimore Banner) entered our market, picking up the slack from the decreasing Howard County coverage left behind by whatever the Flier/HoCoTimes/Sun has turned into, I felt less of a need for me to attempt to fill that news void myself as a hobby blogger, and instead focused my writing on deep-dive analysis of topical land-use issues. This really became my sweet spot where I embraced my passion for going deep into the details of an issue and attempting, as best I could, to synthesize the particulars into an easy-to-read, though often lengthy, analysis. These types of pieces were time-consuming for me, but also enjoyable to write, and include some of the articles I am most proud of - exemplified by my coverage of the Lakefront Library plan or Rosslyn Rise.
Over the past few years, I have also found that the perspective that is most often missing from much of the online discourse surrounding local politics is a pro-growth. So, as I have transformed my blog into a monthly reader and moved it to Substack, I have tackled whatever the issues du jour is from a pro-growth perspective, consistently supporting the side of a development issue would result in new housing and development in our County.
Which brings us to….
Thoughts on the Future
My priority is local economic growth.
I believe that the most important and impactful thing to ensure Howard County remains such a wonderful place to live is to grow our economy - and to do so by increasing our supply of housing and our population. That is why you consistently find me on the side of any issue that adds people, new housing, and new development to the County. It’s not just because I think cities are fun (I do!), but also because I think its the best path forward.
Let me explain why.
I want our local government to have as robust a budget as possible. We have a billion-dollar backlog of deferred maintenance and capital improvement needs in our schools over the next decade, operating budget challenges that annually require cutting school programs and/or increasing class sizes, and educator and public service salaries that are not keeping up with rising costs of living. As it is, we already have so many competing priorities, and we don’t have enough money to address them all, creating me v. you battles over limited resources, particularly when it comes to prioritizing expensive capital improvement projects such as the current debate around the on-again, off-again renovation of Oakland Mills High School. Meanwhile, our population is aging, HCPSS student enrollment is decreasing (down another 500 students this school year), and uncertainty surrounding Federal and contractor employment are factors that are all putting downward pressure on revenue growth prospects. None of these challenges are going away and will only continue to get worse.
So, how do we get more money to spend? Well, the County is required by law to adopt a balanced budget where revenue = expenditure. Therefore, if the goal is to increase our spending, then we must increase revenue.
If you research our revenue sources, you will find that the combination of personal income taxes and property taxes makes up a staggering 92% of total county revenue. So, to raise revenue, we only have two choices. Raise tax rates or increase the tax base.
I’m generally opposed to raising most tax rates. I think enough wealthy people with the means to do so will choose to move out of Howard County if annual income or property tax rates increase too much, offsetting the increased tax revenue paid from those who stay. Instead, the preferred approach is to increase the size of our population, and thus the pool of residents paying income taxes, and likewise, make it easier for property owners to redevelop their property, leading to higher assessed values and more property tax revenues.
In addition to these two primary revenue sources, new housing starts also bring with them one-time school surcharge fees and potentially a new school overcrowding fee that was recommended by the recent A.P.F.O. review committee (of which I was a part of), but these fees only come when new housing is actually built, and new housing starts are at historical lows. Zoning and land-use policies should be amended to make it easier for new housing to be built.
However, increasing the tax base is not just the musing of some random hobby blogger; this is the exact strategy that Howard County, under the leadership of County Executive Ball, has put forward in HoCo by Design. The County’s long term plan is to increase our housing stock by 25% (~31,000+ new housing units) over the next 30 year by enabling redevelopment of underutilized land like surface parking lots (think Downtown Columbia), low-rise office sprawl (think Gateway), and activity centers (think Columbia Village Centers and the Route 1 corridor) into denser mixed-use development that will increase the assessed value of those properties and their corresponding property taxes, while increasing the population of tax-paying residents.
It’s not just about new housing. We also need people to fill all this housing. So, we should also focus on increasing the appeal of living in Howard County to younger generations, which will help usher in a wave of young people who decide to relocate, settle in, raise a family, buy a home, become future leaders in our community, and spend a lifetime paying local taxes. We need jobs, amenities, recreation and entertain draws, and appealing and affordable housing options. We should ensure new housing is built so there are housing options affordable at all price points - from ultra-luxurious condos to affordable units with rents tied to a percentage of median income, and all else missing in the middle, like ADUs.
As I write this, I can practically hear the tapping of my fellow keyboard warriors as they load up their rebuttal that development doesn’t pay for the infrastructure needed to support it.
I’d counter by saying that we can’t afford not to grow. Yes, there are risks. We risk that revenue doesn’t grow as much or as quickly as we hope. But the risks of doing nothing are far greater than the risks of growing. If we actively implement policies that impede growth, we will certainly continue a downward trend where expenses increase much quicker than revenues do. If we embrace growth, revenues have a far better chance of keeping up.
If you want to geek out with me, ask your favorite AI engine how much more capital spending we could afford if the Howard County economy grew by 25% while still limiting annual debt service to current recommended levels. Gemini gave me an answer of over $500 million in new additional capital spending. That buys us 2 to 3 new high schools or 5 to 6 new middle schools on top of what could already be afforded in a business-as-usual scenario.
I’d love to see candidates for local government campaign on a pro-growth platform. I suspect many consider it too risky a campaign strategy. Meanwhile, candidates certainly are not shy about saying that if elected, they will work to stop new development while at the same time stating that they will increase investment in school construction. Gee whiz, how you gonna get the money to do that?! It doesn’t compute. No matter the platform, I hope that the next County Executive carries forward the progress that has been made under the Ball Administration, alongside a new county council that supports growth ambitions.
So buckle up, with or without me, the next six months will be highly impactful as we approach the June 23, 2026, primary elections and decide on the leaders that will chart our path forward. And I hope the growth mindset that I advocate here is a helpful framing as you consider candidates and their positions, as well as development opportunities in the future.
a thank you is insufficient for your thoughtfulness & clear prose. Please continue with your analysis and projections. Honesty is vital for democracy
Jeremy: In my previous comment I neglected to thank you for all the work you've done over the years in reporting on Howard County and its development. Let me remedy that now. You are correct that other outlets like the Baltimore Banner have picked up on local reporting. However mainstream media often offer only a "just the facts", "he said-she said" approach to contentious issues, especially those related to development. They hesitate to advocate for a position and point out obvious crappy arguments. In short, for the most part they cannot and will not provide that most rare and useful thing, an informed opinion. The Merriweather Post has done that for Howard County, and I'll regret its absence. Thank you again!